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Performance Dashboard

Complete transparency on our investment thesis predictions. We track every prediction and show you the results—wins, losses, and everything in between.

Total Theses

5

3 active, 2 closed

Success Rate

50%

1 of 2 successful

Avg Active Confidence

42%

Across 3 active theses

Avg Final Score

50%

Across 2 closed theses

Success Breakdown

1
Successful
≥70% outcome score
0
Partial Success
50-69% outcome score
1
Failed
<50% outcome score
50%
50%

Performance by Category

Stocks

2 total (1 active, 1 closed)

100%
1 of 1 successful
Success Rate (1 closed)
Avg Active Confidence (1 active)

Sector

1 total (1 active, 0 closed)

No closed theses yet
Success Rate
Avg Active Confidence (1 active)

Fed policy

1 total (1 active, 0 closed)

No closed theses yet
Success Rate
Avg Active Confidence (1 active)

Macro

1 total (0 active, 1 closed)

0%
0 of 1 successful
Success Rate (1 closed)

Best Category: Stocks (100% success rate)Needs Improvement: Macro (0% success rate)

Our Scoring Methodology

Active Theses: Confidence score = percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track"

Closed Theses: Outcome score = percentage of data points that fully "met" their targets (more strict)

Success Criteria: ≥70% = Successful, 50-69% = Partial Success, <50% = Failed

We believe transparency builds trust. Every thesis—successful or not—remains publicly visible to demonstrate our methodology and track record over time.