Performance Dashboard
Complete transparency on our investment thesis predictions. We track every prediction and show you the results—wins, losses, and everything in between.
Total Theses
5
3 active, 2 closed
Success Rate
50%
1 of 2 successful
Avg Active Confidence
42%
Across 3 active theses
Avg Final Score
50%
Across 2 closed theses
Success Breakdown
Performance by Category
Stocks
2 total (1 active, 1 closed)
Sector
1 total (1 active, 0 closed)
Fed policy
1 total (1 active, 0 closed)
Macro
1 total (0 active, 1 closed)
Best Category: Stocks (100% success rate) • Needs Improvement: Macro (0% success rate)
Recently Closed
Recently Created
Example: AI Infrastructure Spending Drives Semiconductor Rally
Example: Healthcare Sector Outperforms in Q4 2024
Example: Fed Rate Cut Drives Tech Stock Rally
Example: Summer Driving Season Pushes Oil Above $95
Example: Apple Vision Pro Launch Boosts Stock 15%
Our Scoring Methodology
Active Theses: Confidence score = percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track"
Closed Theses: Outcome score = percentage of data points that fully "met" their targets (more strict)
Success Criteria: ≥70% = Successful, 50-69% = Partial Success, <50% = Failed
We believe transparency builds trust. Every thesis—successful or not—remains publicly visible to demonstrate our methodology and track record over time.