Example: Apple Vision Pro Launch Boosts Stock 15%
Final Outcome Score
Successful
2/2/2024
120 days from February 2, 2024
2/2/2024 - 6/1/2024
11/10/2025
Thesis Details
The Event
Apple announced the Vision Pro launch date of February 2, 2024, with pre-orders beginning January 19. The mixed reality headset represents Apple's entry into spatial computing.
Our Hypothesis
Apple stock will gain 15%+ within 120 days of Vision Pro launch as investors price in a new product category with long-term growth potential.
Our Rationale
New product category launches historically drive Apple stock appreciation as investors model out multi-year revenue potential. Vision Pro represents Apple's first major new category since Apple Watch (2015). Even modest initial sales would validate the spatial computing market. Strong developer interest (600+ apps at launch) suggests ecosystem momentum.
Tags
Measurable Data Points (4)
AAPL Stock Price
Price • yahoo finance (AAPL)
Target
Above 207
Current Value
213
Last Updated
11/10/2025
AAPL Market Cap
Custom • manual
Target
Above 3200000000000
Current Value
3280000000000
Last Updated
11/10/2025
Revenue Growth QoQ
Percentage • manual
Target
Above 3
Current Value
4.2
Last Updated
11/10/2025
Analyst Upgrade Count
Custom • manual
Target
Above 5
Current Value
3
Last Updated
11/10/2025
How we score: Each data point is evaluated as "met", "on track", "off track", or "failed" based on its current value vs. target. The overall confidence score is calculated as the percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track". When a thesis is closed, the final outcome score only counts "met" data points.